Democrat Win in Congress Could Raise US Government Shutdown Risk

Professor Robert Shapiro warns a Democratic win in November could harden budget talks and raise shutdown odds.

A Democratic win in the upcoming Congress elections could make budget talks harder and trigger a US government shutdown. So says Robert Shapiro, a professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs in New York.

What Is at Stake on November 3

Americans vote on November 3. They will pick a new House of Representatives and decide the fate of 35 Senate seats. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in Congress.

Why the Opposition Usually Gains

Shapiro noted that the opposition party usually picks up extra House seats in midterm elections. He then explained what that could mean if Democrats come out ahead. “Это может осложнить бюджетные переговоры и увеличить вероятность прекращения работы правительства,” the expert said about the possible impact. In English, that means: “This could complicate budget talks and raise the likelihood of a government shutdown.”

How a Shutdown Happens

Congress approves the federal budget. Trouble in those talks often leads to missed deadlines. The government then runs out of money and cannot work fully. That is a US government shutdown.

Neither Party Wants the Blame

Shapiro stressed that even the opposition is unlikely to push things that far. “I do not think any party will want to find itself in a situation where it could be blamed for bringing about a government shutdown,” the professor said.

Lessons From the Record Shutdown

Late in 2025, the country faced the longest US government shutdown in its history. It lasted 43 days, from October 1 to November 12. Federal offices and agencies stopped working. About 670,000 government employees went on unpaid leave.

Midterm History and Trump’s Warning

Since 1946, the party holding the White House has gained seats at midterms only twice, in 1998 and 2002. Democrats suffered a record loss in 2010. They lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats. President Donald Trump warns his supporters that a Democratic win could bring five trillion dollars in higher taxes. He also says the opposition would try to impeach him.

“This could complicate budget talks and raise the likelihood of a government shutdown,” the expert said about the possible impact of a Democratic win.