The BRICS TimesThe UAE’s shock decision to quit OPEC on May 1 goes far deeper than just an oil production dispute, it is a bold geopolitical move that weakens Saudi Arabia, pleases Donald Trump, and lands amid a brewing rivalry over Iran peace talks where Pakistan has quietly become a key player.
UAE Slams the Door on OPEC And It’s Not Just About Oil
The United Arab Emirates has walked away from OPEC and the timing couldn’t be more charged. The announcement made on Tuesday sends a clear message to Saudi Arabia, signals fresh alignment with the United States, and arrives as the Iran war keeps the entire Gulf region on edge. On the surface, the exit looks like a long-overdue business decision. But dig deeper, and it quickly becomes something far more political.
The UAE declared it will formally exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on May 1. The country had been a member since its Emirate of Abu Dhabi joined in 1967. The decision framed as a pursuit of “national interests” strips OPEC of its third-largest oil producer and leaves Saudi Arabia holding more of the burden alone.
Also Read | UAE Walks Out of OPEC And the Oil World May Never Look the Same
A Production Battle That Was Always Simmering
For years, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have clashed over the same fundamental question how much oil to pump. Saudi Arabia wanted to keep supply tight to hold up prices. The UAE wanted to produce more, faster.
“The UAE has always been on the side of volume strategy, and the Saudis have been on the side of price strategy,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management.
The reason is structural. Saudi Arabia is home to 35 million people it needs high oil revenues to fund the state. The UAE has just one million citizens so fewer people share the profits, and there’s more logic in pumping as much oil as physically possible.
The UAE has invested massively in infrastructure to expand its production capacity targeting five million barrels per day by 2027. Staying within OPEC’s quota system was simply leaving money underground.
“The UAE is the OPEC country with the largest amount of spare capacity compared to production,” Rasmussen noted. “What’s inside the ground might not have the same value in five or ten years.”
Also Read | UAE Walks Out of OPEC After Nearly Six Decades; Here Is What Changes Now
The War on Iran Pushed Abu Dhabi Over the Edge
Before the US-Israeli war on Iran erupted, Saudi Arabia had actually drifted closer to the UAE’s position backing large production increases after years of defending price cuts. The traditional argument between the two had become less relevant.
So why quit OPEC now? Experts say the answer lies in politics, not just barrels.
“The policy differences between UAE and Saudi Arabia have been there for a long time, but Saudi Arabia has pivoted to taking back market share and the war made their old argument less salient. This exit is much more political,” said Greg Priddy, senior fellow for the Middle East at the Center for the National Interest.
The departure comes precisely as Abu Dhabi ramps up lobbying for the US to press ahead with its war on Iran and edges closer to Israel. When Iran was bombarding the UAE with drones and missiles, Israel reportedly sent an Iron Dome air-defence system and technicians to help defend the small Gulf state.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei acknowledged the war actually made the exit easier. “The timing in our view is right because it has a minimum impact on all of the producers,” he said.
Also Read | UAE Quits OPEC; Breaking Away from the GCC and Plotting Its Own Energy Future
A Gift to Trump And Maybe a Deal on the Table
Donald Trump has been openly hostile to OPEC for years accusing the cartel of “ripping off the rest of the world.” The UAE walking out of OPEC could therefore be read as a calculated offering to the US president.
“It is possible that this break could also be the result of some sort of ‘deal’ between the UAE and Israel and the US, wherein they helped defend the UAE from Iran in exchange for delivering a major blow to OPEC, which Trump has long sought,” wrote Ellen Wald, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of Saudi Inc. “I would not be surprised if we see some sort of defense agreement announced in the near future.”
There are signs Abu Dhabi is bracing for a long period of regional turbulence. The UAE Foreign Minister told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Abu Dhabi is prepared for the war to drag on for up to nine months. Earlier this month, the UAE also approached the Trump administration for a currency swap line seeking to secure access to US dollars if its reserves came under pressure.
“This will piss off the Saudis,” a western diplomat in the region told Middle East Eye bluntly. “It seems like the UAE has something bigger in mind.”
The Pakistan Angle : A Hidden Fault Line
At the heart of the Saudi-UAE split is a quiet but intensifying rivalry over the Iran war itself and Pakistan is sitting right in the middle of it.
Saudi Arabia has supported the US military campaign by providing enhanced basing access and allowing overflights. But Riyadh has also quietly backed mediation efforts led by its close partner Pakistan trying to bring the US and Iran to the negotiating table. In fact, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner were headed to Pakistan to meet the Iranian delegation until Trump abruptly cancelled the trip on Saturday, leaving the US Navy’s blockade on Iranian ports firmly in place.
The UAE, however, has been doing the opposite privately and publicly lobbying Washington to keep hammering Iran, and reportedly working to block Pakistan’s attempts to broker a ceasefire.
This puts Riyadh and Abu Dhabi on completely opposite sides of the Iran diplomacy question and it cuts to the core of their deepening rivalry.
The two countries are also backing opposing sides in Sudan’s civil war. In December, Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment heading to UAE-backed Yemeni separatists. And in March, Saudi Arabia paid for weapons shipments from Pakistan to reach Khalifa Haftar’s forces in eastern Libya a direct move to pull that army away from UAE influence.
Saudi Arabia Now Has to Go It Alone
The fallout for OPEC and for Saudi Arabia specifically is significant. The UAE had around 4.8 million barrels per day of production capacity. Losing a member of that scale leaves a real gap.
“Saudi Arabia is now left doing more of the heavy lifting on price stability, and the market loses one of the few shock absorbers it had left,” Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon said.
In practical terms, the Hormuz blockade means the UAE can’t flood global markets immediately right now it routes roughly 1.9 million barrels per day through a pipeline to Fujairah port, bypassing the Strait entirely. But once the war ends and the strait reopens, the UAE will be free to ramp up production without asking OPEC’s permission.
“If the war ends, there will be enough of a hole in global inventory levels that their higher exports can be absorbed,” Priddy said. “But any extra capacity is not going to come onto the market right now.”
‘We Could Be Writing OPEC’s Obituary’
Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, put the long-term stakes plainly: “The UAE has a profoundly different view on energy production than Saudi Arabia. This means they no longer have to listen to the Saudis, who set the terms in OPEC.”
“They finally did it, probably because of the war. Everything is up in the air, and there is an opportunity to make dramatic decisions,” he said. “In practical terms, the Emiratis have very considerable spare capacity. If they want to play the role of market regulator like the Saudis have, they can do it. This empowers them in a big way.”
For an oil alliance that has existed for 65 years founded by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela the UAE’s departure signals a structural crack that may never fully heal.
“This is a big blow to OPEC,” Rasmussen said flatly. “We could be writing its obituary.”
