The BRICS TimesThe United Arab Emirates has stunned the global energy world by quitting OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. From Iran’s missile attacks to long-running quota frustrations, here is everything you need to know about this historic exit and what it means for oil prices worldwide.
A Shocking Goodbye After Nearly 60 Years
The United Arab Emirates dropped a bombshell on the global energy market it is walking out of OPEC, the powerful oil-producing cartel, along with the broader OPEC+ alliance. The exit takes effect on May 1, 2026, ending a membership that stretches back nearly six decades. The UAE’s state media announced the decision, saying it reflects “the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile.”
The announcement caught the world off guard. Oil prices surged immediately U.S. crude shot past $100 per barrel for the first time since April 10. International benchmark Brent crude jumped sharply too, reaching nearly $113 per barrel. The nationwide U.S. petrol average climbed to $4.18 per gallon the highest so far this year.
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Why Did the UAE Leave OPEC?
The UAE’s Energy Ministry said it reviewed its production policy and capacity before arriving at this decision. The ministry’s written statement said the departure “reflects national interest” and gives the UAE more flexibility to respond to oil market dynamics on its own terms.
Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei addressed the move directly he went on television and stated it plainly. “Our exit at this time is the right time for it, because it will have a minimum impact on the price and it will have a minimum impact on our friends at OPEC and OPEC+,” he said.
The UAE had long been chafing under OPEC’s quota system. It has spent heavily to build production capacity toward 5 million barrels per day and OPEC+ limits were getting in the way. The nation wanted freedom to pump more oil and grow its economy without being held back by cartel rules.
Iran’s Attacks Were the Final Straw
The timing of the exit is closely tied to the ongoing war between the US-Israel alliance and Iran. For weeks, the UAE faced missile and drone attacks from fellow OPEC member Iran a situation that severely damaged its ability to export oil through the Strait of Hormuz. That narrow waterway between Iran and Oman normally carries around one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Iran’s threats and attacks on Gulf shipping choked the UAE’s oil exports threatening the very foundation of its economy. Al Mazrouei told CNN that the Hormuz closure was a decisive factor. “Everyone is constrained, including us,” he said, calling the move a “sovereign national decision.”
What Happens to OPEC Without the UAE?
The UAE was OPEC’s third-largest producer behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Its exit removes one of the cartel’s most important members and leaves a significant hole in OPEC’s ability to manage oil supply.
Energy research company Rystad Energy was blunt about the consequences. Analyst Jorge Leon said: “Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group’s hands.” He added that the long-term implication is “a structurally weaker OPEC.”
David Goldwyn who served as the U.S. State Department’s special envoy for energy affairs said Saudi Arabia will still have muscle in the market through its own spare capacity. But Riyadh now has a weaker hand in managing the cartel. “There’s significant risk of higher oil price volatility as a result of this decision,” Goldwyn said.
A Long History and Long-Running Tensions
The UAE’s OPEC journey began with the Emirate of Abu Dhabi back in 1967 just seven years after OPEC was founded. The full UAE joined as a sovereign nation in 1971 and remained a member for over five decades.
But the relationship had been straining for years. The UAE repeatedly pushed to raise its production quotas while Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s dominant force, pushed back. Internal disagreements sometimes delayed OPEC meetings outright.
Beyond oil, political ties between the UAE and Saudi Arabia once close regional allies have also grown complicated. The two countries backed opposing sides in Yemen. They have also been competing fiercely for foreign investment and tourism dollars, especially since Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 economic transformation drive kicked in.
Qatar’s exit from OPEC back in 2019 was another sign of the cracks forming inside the group. Now the UAE’s departure raises fresh questions about whether other members might follow.
What Comes Next for Oil Markets?
The UAE has pledged to keep acting responsibly even outside OPEC. Its state news agency said: “Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions.”
The nation is targeting a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day by 2027. But with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed due to the Iran conflict, any ramp-up in exports will take time to reach world markets.
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts after the UAE’s announcement. It now sees U.S. crude at $83 per barrel in the fourth quarter up from an earlier forecast of $75. Its Brent estimate rose by $10 to $90 per barrel.
Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen, noted that the conflict has already “drained global commercial and strategic crude inventories” meaning any new UAE supply, when it eventually flows, could be absorbed without crashing prices immediately.
Analyst Sam North of eToro warned the move “raises the risk” of a shift toward market-share competition if other producers decide to follow the UAE’s lead a scenario that could reshape the entire global oil order.
