Bangladesh Says India-Bangladesh Ties Will Hinge on a New Ganges Water-Sharing Deal

Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman has made it clear the future of India-Bangladesh relations will largely depend on reaching a fair and climate-resilient Ganges water-sharing treaty. With the existing 1996 accord set to expire in December 2026, Dhaka is pushing hard for a revised deal that goes beyond the old formula. The Teesta River dispute adds further pressure to an already strained relationship between the two neighbours.

A River at the Heart of Two Nations

Water not trade, not borders, not diplomacy may end up being the defining issue between India and Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman has said the Ganges water-sharing treaty will be the first real test of whether ties between the two countries can be rebuilt. He made these remarks in an interview with NDTV, aired recently, after his visit to New Delhi and subsequent attendance at the Indian Ocean Conference in Mauritius.

“Our relationship with the Ganges water is a matter of life and death,” Rahman said. “Our entire civilisation and livelihoods depend on access to its waters. The existing agreement will expire in a few months. We want to see a revised agreement that can meet people’s urgent needs.”

The statement carries enormous weight and it was not made lightly.

The 1996 Treaty and Why It No Longer Fits

The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty was signed on December 12, 1996 a landmark moment when then-Indian Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina sealed a 30-year deal in New Delhi. The treaty governs how the two countries divide the Ganges flow at the Farakka Barrage during the dry season, from January to May. Under the existing framework, each side receives a guaranteed share of 35,000 cubic feet per second or cusecs of water.

But three decades have passed. Rivers have changed. Climates have shifted. And Bangladesh argues the old numbers no longer reflect reality.

For the renewal, Dhaka is pushing for a higher guaranteed flow reportedly around 40,000 cusecs along with a longer treaty duration and more predictable water allocation. The Indian side, however, has responded cautiously noting that any revision to treaty terms must account for domestic water needs and requires coordination with state governments, including West Bengal.

A Relationship Under Strain And Water in the Middle

The political backdrop matters here. Since the mass uprising of July 2024 ousted Sheikh Hasina from power, bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh have been strained. The Muhammad Yunus-led interim government did not enjoy warm ties with New Delhi. Bangladesh’s growing closeness with China and Pakistan has added to India’s unease.

Rahman’s visit to New Delhi in April 2026 as the first minister from the new BNP-led government to make the trip was widely seen as an attempt to reset relations. He held talks with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, met National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, and also sat down with Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri.

“As both countries are interested in rebuilding relations, the Ganges water-sharing agreement based on fairness and climate resilience will be the first test of fixing bilateral ties,” Rahman said.

Teesta The Other River That Won’t Go Away

The Ganges treaty is only one part of the water puzzle. The long-pending Teesta River water-sharing deal which has been stuck for over a decade came up again in discussions. Dhaka has repeatedly urged New Delhi to finalise the agreement.

“We cannot put about 14 percent of the people in such a dire situation, and that’s why we continue talks with all,” Rahman said. “We are asking India to sign the deal.”

Progress on the Teesta, however, hinges on the West Bengal state government a political complication that New Delhi cannot resolve unilaterally. The issue has lingered for years, straining trust between the neighbours.

14 Rivers, One Mechanism: Bangladesh’s Bold Ask

Beyond the Ganges, Bangladesh has proposed an entirely new institutional framework to manage water-sharing across 14 transboundary rivers including the Muhuri, Khowai, Gomati, Dharal, and Doodhkumar. A 10-member Bangladeshi delegation, led by Joint River Commission member Mohd Abul Hossain, put forward this proposal at a JRC meeting in New Delhi in September 2025.

India pushed back suggesting the existing JRC mechanism could simply be strengthened rather than replaced. New Delhi views the creation of a new body with some suspicion, especially given Bangladesh’s decision to join the United Nations Water Convention a move that India fears could shift negotiating power away from bilateral channels.

Climate Change Is Rewriting the Rules

At the core of Bangladesh’s demands lies climate vulnerability. The country sits at the terminal end of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin one of the world’s most densely populated and climate-exposed river systems. Rising temperatures, erratic monsoons, and reduced dry-season flows have already begun hitting Bangladeshi farmers, fishermen, and households hard.

“Achieving climate resilience through shared resources can be the foundation of bilateral relations for at least the next three decades,” Rahman said.

The shadow of India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025 looms large. That move signalled New Delhi’s willingness to revisit even the most entrenched international water agreements. Indian media reported that New Delhi now prefers a shorter renewal possibly just 10 to 15 years rather than another 30-year deal.

What Comes Next

The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty expires in December 2026. Preliminary negotiations are underway. The Joint River Commission has met multiple times in Kolkata in March 2025 and in New Delhi in September 2025. Both sides agree the treaty must be renewed. They just don’t agree on the terms.

“Renewing the Ganges water-sharing treaty will be a test of the relationship,” former Bangladeshi ambassador M. Humayun Kabir has said echoing what officials across Dhaka have made clear.

For millions of Bangladeshis who depend on the Padma river system for their survival, this is far more than a diplomatic negotiation. It is a question of water, land, food, and life itself and the clock is ticking.