Akshay DidwaniyaA fully loaded Suezmax tanker carrying Iraqi crude oil crossed the Strait of Hormuz and is now heading toward India. Daily commercial transits through the embattled waterway continue to drop sharply far below the levels seen before the ongoing Iran conflict began 12 weeks ago.
A Fully Loaded Suezmax Makes the Crossing
A Suezmax tanker believed to be hauling Iraqi crude oil has made it past the Strait of Hormuz and is now sailing toward India. The vessel, named Karolos, appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday after seemingly crossing the strait in the past few days. Its reported draft confirmed the ship was fully loaded.
Vessel-tracking data showed the Liberia-flagged Karolos capable of carrying up to one million barrels heading for the western Indian port of Sikka. The ship had previously appeared near Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates a week earlier, moving in the opposite direction entirely.
Ship-tracking firm Kpler identified the tanker as carrying Iraqi crude loaded at Basra between May 10 and 11. Satellite imagery from the EU’s Sentinel 2 platform showed a vessel matching the Karolos in size and color at a Basra loading buoy on the morning of May 11. Separately, data analytics company SynMax confirmed the vessel’s draft had increased on May 14 a clear sign it had taken on cargo.
Transit Numbers Keep Falling
Daily commercial crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply on Friday dropping to just five ships in both directions, down from eleven the day before. Saturday saw a slight uptick, with six vessels making it through, according to Bloomberg vessel-tracking data.
Traffic through the Persian Gulf remains well below what was normal before the war broke out now entering its twelfth week. The conflict has choked one of the world’s most critical oil shipping lanes.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said Iran would soon cave in yet no sign of that has materialized. Iran has not eased its blockade of the strait at all. Tehran has listed acceptance of its sovereignty over the Hormuz waterway as one of five conditions before it will even consider resuming peace negotiations.
The US Blockade and the Evasion Question
The tanker’s journey has raised eyebrows. If its automated tracking signals are accurate, the Karolos appears to have successfully slipped past the US maritime blockade crossing the Gulf of Oman between May 9 and 10.
Tracking the actual volume of traffic has become increasingly unreliable. Widespread interference with the Automatic Identification System the maritime industry’s standard ship-tracking network makes independent verification extremely difficult. Transit counts may need to be revised upward later, as vessels reappear further from high-risk zones.
Even before the US imposed restrictions on movement to and from Iranian ports, it was standard practice for Iran-linked vessels to “go dark” near Hormuz. Those ships typically don’t switch their signals back on until they reach the Strait of Malacca roughly thirteen days after passing Fujairah.
Other Tankers in the Mix
The situation at sea remains complicated. The oil tanker Agios Fanourios I which the US had halted while it was en route from Iraq to Vietnam remains stationary in the Gulf of Oman.
Meanwhile, the very large crude carrier Kiara M which also exited the Persian Gulf after loading at Basra appears to have offloaded its cargo onto another ship somewhere off the coast of Oman, tracking data suggest.
Friday’s observable outbound crossings included a bulk carrier, two Iran-linked vessels a fuel tanker and a container ship and a China-linked liquefied petroleum gas carrier spotted the previous day. Saturday morning saw a busier-than-usual picture with a products tanker, three bulk carriers, and a livestock transporter all heading out of the Gulf.
75 Ships Diverted So Far
The US military is making its presence felt. US Central Command posted on X confirming that the military has now diverted 75 commercial ships since imposing its own blockade on Iran. As of May 16, that number had climbed to 78 with four ships also reportedly disabled to enforce compliance.
India’s Oil Supply Line Under Pressure
India a major importer of Gulf crude has been monitoring the situation closely. Several tanker deliveries have made it through since the crisis began. A Suezmax tanker discharged Saudi crude at Mumbai for Hindustan Petroleum Corp. as early as March 16 just days after crossing the strait. Another vessel unloaded Saudi crude at Sikka for Reliance Industries on March 28.
The Karolos managed by Greek shipping firm Dynacom, one of the more active Greek operators in the strait since the war began on February 28 is the latest to complete the risky crossing. Dynacom did not respond to requests for comment.
The crisis continues to send shockwaves through global energy markets and with no peace talks in sight, the world’s most critical oil corridor remains dangerously unpredictable.
Mayur Mohta
Pratik Agrawal
The BRICS Times
Aditya Didwaniya