India’s Death Rate Still Hasn’t Recovered to Pre-COVID Levels And Fertility Is Falling Faster Than Expected

India’s latest SRS Statistical Report 2023 reveals a complex demographic picture deaths remain stubbornly elevated beyond pre-pandemic norms, the fertility rate has dropped further to 1.9, and the elderly population is quietly but steadily growing. Here’s what the numbers really mean for India’s future.

India’s Mortality Still Running High After COVID, New Government Data Raises Concerns

India’s death rate has not fully returned to where it was before the COVID-19 pandemic and that is just one of the striking findings buried inside the latest government population report. The Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, released by the Office of the Registrar General of India, paints a detailed and somewhat unsettling demographic portrait of the country.

The Crude Death Rate for 2023 stands at 6.4 a decline from 6.8 in 2022. However, this figure remains above the pre-pandemic baseline that India had achieved. Health experts note that this lingering elevation reflects a combination of delayed healthcare access, post-COVID complications, and an ageing population. India’s demographic recovery, it seems, is still a work in progress.

Fertility Rate Drops to 1.9 Below the Replacement Level

Perhaps the most discussed figure in the report is India’s Total Fertility Rate which has now dropped to 1.9 in 2023. This marks a fall from the 2.0 recorded in both 2021 and 2022. It is the first time in two years that the TFR has declined pushing India further below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman.

What this means is straightforward: Indian women are having fewer children than what is needed to naturally sustain the population from one generation to the next. Among major states, Bihar continues to record the highest TFR at 2.8 while Delhi sits at the extreme opposite end at just 1.2. As many as 18 states and Union Territories now report a TFR below the replacement threshold.

The Crude Birth Rate has also slipped falling from 19.1 in 2022 to 18.4 in 2023. Bihar again tops the chart at 25.8 births per 1,000 people, while Tamil Nadu records the lowest at just 12.

Infant Deaths Are at a Historic Low A Rare Bright Spot

Not everything in the report is cause for worry. India’s Infant Mortality Rate has hit a record low of 25 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2023 down from 26 in 2022 and as high as 129 in 1971. This sharp multi-decade improvement reflects decades of investment in maternal healthcare, institutional deliveries, and nutrition programmes.

The Under-Five Mortality Rate has also improved falling from 30 in 2022 to 29 in 2023. States like Kerala, however, continue to lead with an IMR as low as 5, while Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh remain at 37 a wide gap that reflects deep regional healthcare inequalities.

India’s Elderly Population Is Quietly Surging

One of the most significant long-term signals in the report is the rise of India’s elderly population. As of 2023, people above the age of 60 now make up 9.7% of India’s total population an increase of 0.7 percentage points within just a single year. Kerala leads among states with a remarkable 15% of its population aged over 60.

This greying of India driven by a falling birth rate and improved life expectancy carries enormous implications. India’s healthcare infrastructure, pension systems, and social security frameworks were largely designed for a younger demographic. That reality is changing faster than policymakers may have anticipated.

Life Expectancy Continues to Rise But the Gap Between Men and Women Persists

According to SRS-based Abridged Life Tables for 2019-2023, the average life expectancy for Indian men is 68.5 years and for Indian women, it is 72.5 years. The gender gap in survival persists, a pattern consistent with global trends. Women, on average, outlive men by four years in India.

Sex Ratio at Birth Improves Slowly

The Sex Ratio at Birth defined as the number of female births per 1,000 male births has improved to 917 for the period 2021-23, up from 914 in the previous period of 2020-22. Chhattisgarh reports the highest ratio at 974, while Uttarakhand records the lowest at 868.

Improvement here is gradual and uneven but the direction of change is positive. Decades of social and legal intervention against gender-biased sex selection appear to be bearing fruit, at least at the national aggregate level.

The Bigger Picture: A Nation in Demographic Transition

Taken together, the SRS 2023 data captures India at a pivotal and somewhat contradictory demographic crossroads. Birth rates are falling. Death rates, while declining, are still not back to where they were before the pandemic. Infant deaths are at record lows. Elderly people are a growing share of the population.

India is no longer just a young, high-fertility country hurtling towards population explosion. It is slowly, unevenly, but unmistakably becoming something quite different. What that means for growth, labour, and public health planning is a conversation that cannot wait much longer.