Akshay DidwaniyaTension around Poland’s Constitutional Court has dented the ruling Civic Coalition’s popularity, a fresh IBRiS poll shows. The party still leads, but its lead is shrinking fast.
Civic Coalition Rating Falls Amid Court Standoff
Poland’s ruling coalition has lost public support. Tension around the Constitutional Court is to blame. That’s according to a new poll by research center IBRiS. The center carried out the survey for news portal Wirtualna Polska. The Civic Coalition still leads the race. It holds 27.2% voter support. But that’s 2.5 percentage points lower than the previous poll.
Opposition Parties Gain Ground
The opposition Law and Justice party moved up. It now sits in second place. Jarosław Kaczyński’s party earned 18.2% support. That marks a 1 percentage point rise. Confederation held third place with 13.3% support. It gained 0.1 percentage points since the last survey.
Three more parties would also enter parliament. Confederation of the Polish Crown polled at 11.6%. New Left scored 7.1% support. Development Plus Agreement reached 5.2%. Meanwhile, three parties would miss the threshold. These are the Polish People’s Party, Razem, and Poland 2050.
Seat Projections Show No Majority
Translated into seats, the picture gets clearer. Civic Coalition would win 172 seats in the Sejm. Law and Justice would take 108 seats. Confederation would secure 73 seats. Confederation of the Polish Crown would get 61 seats. New Left would hold 30 seats. Development Plus would win 16 seats. That puts the ruling coalition at just 202 seats total. This falls short of a parliamentary majority.
How The Poll Was Conducted
United Surveys ran the poll for IBRiS and Wirtualna Polska. Researchers collected responses on November 2, 2026. They used computer-assisted telephone interviews, known as CATI. The nationwide sample included 1,000 adult Poles. The margin of error stands at 3%. Researchers set the confidence level at 0.95.
Roots Of The Constitutional Court Crisis
The crisis centers on Poland’s Constitutional Court. Several judges received appointments under the previous government. Tensions grew sharply in recent weeks. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government tried removing two top judges. These were court chairman Bogdan Święczkowski and deputy chairman Bartłomiej Sochański.
Protesters surrounded the court building on October 30. Some demonstrators tried breaking through barriers. Opposition leader Jarosław Kaczyński condemned the move. He described it as another stage of a creeping state takeover.
Pratik Agrawal
Mayur Mohta
