India’s Monsoon 2026 May Fall Short as Strong El Niño Builds, Weather Agencies Warn

India could see its first below-normal monsoon in three years as global weather bodies signal a strong El Niño developing by mid-2026, raising serious concerns for millions of farmers dependent on seasonal rains.

What the Forecasts Are Saying

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has flagged a high-confidence forecast for El Niño conditions emerging between May and July 2026. Climate models across multiple agencies are now strongly aligned on this prediction. A senior WMO official said: “After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow.” He added: “Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April.”

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its first long-range forecast on April 13, 2026. It predicted the 2026 southwest monsoon to be below normal. The department put the expected rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA is calculated as the average rainfall between 1971 and 2020, which stands at around 87 cm.

Why El Niño Hurts India’s Monsoon

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It involves unusual warming of Pacific Ocean surface waters near the central and eastern equatorial belt. This disrupts global atmospheric circulation in significant ways.

Warm Pacific waters trigger rising air and heavy rainfall over the central and eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, descending air currents reduce rainfall over the Indian Ocean and surrounding regions. During El Niño years, atmospheric shifts can weaken the moisture-carrying winds from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. This directly reduces India’s monsoon rainfall.

Historically, El Niño years have brought hotter temperatures and weaker rainfall to India. A strong or “super” El Niño, as being discussed this year, can intensify these effects significantly.

The IMD Forecast in Detail

The IMD forecast shows a worrying picture across most of India. Except for parts of the extreme north, extreme west, northeast, and northern south peninsula, most regions face the risk of deficit rainfall. This would be the first below-normal monsoon for India since 2023.

IMD director general Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra and Earth Sciences Ministry secretary M Ravichandran confirmed the forecast at a press conference at Mausam Bhavan. They noted that while El Niño is the primary driver, other factors are also at play.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another major driver of the southwest monsoon, currently shows neutral conditions. IMD forecasts that the IOD will turn positive toward the end of the monsoon season. A positive IOD typically supports better monsoon rainfall. This could partially offset the El Niño effect in the season’s later months.

Additionally, snow cover across the northern hemisphere between January and March 2026 was slightly below normal. IMD noted that below-normal snow cover in Eurasia generally leads to better monsoon rainfall, offering a small silver lining.

Farmers at the Centre of the Crisis

The stakes are extraordinarily high for India’s agricultural sector. Around 60% of Indian farmers depend entirely on monsoon rainfall for the Kharif cropping season. Key crops like rice, pulses, and sugarcane are directly linked to southwest monsoon performance.

A below-normal monsoon could mean lower crop yields across wide swathes of the country. This, in turn, risks pushing food prices higher and slowing overall economic growth. Many farming regions are already reeling from hailstorm and flooding damage during the pre-monsoon season of 2026, making another setback particularly painful.

Expert Voices on Climate Complexity

Not all experts are painting a purely grim picture. Climate scientist and former IMD director general K J Ramesh highlighted an important nuance. He said: “We also forget that there is another major driver for monsoon rainfall, which is global warming. We have been observing excess moisture being added to the monsoon rainfall since 2000 and this accumulated moisture will be causing rainfall somewhere, such as what we have observed in Rajasthan in the past few years.”

This points to a broader, more complex picture. Even in El Niño years, certain regions can see above-normal or extreme rainfall events. Research has shown that while El Niño suppresses total seasonal rainfall, it can simultaneously increase the intensity of extreme daily rainfall in parts of central India and the Western Ghats.

What Lies Ahead Globally

The developing El Niño is not just an India story. The WMO forecast points to near-global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures over the coming months. Southern North America, Central America, Europe, and Northern Africa face strong warming signals. Regions like Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia face potential drought conditions.

The last major El Niño events occurred in 1997–98 and 2015–16. Both episodes triggered extreme weather worldwide and temporarily pushed global temperatures to record levels. If the 2026 event reaches comparable strength, its consequences for weather patterns globally could be severe.

The WMO has said that South Asian Climate Outlook Forum will issue detailed monsoon forecasts on April 28. A global seasonal briefing for UN and humanitarian agencies follows on April 29. India and the broader region will be watching these updates very closely.