The BRICS TimesIndia’s weather department says May 2026 will bring slightly lower daytime temperatures and a noticeable spike in thunderstorm activity across the country. While some relief is on the way for most regions, heatwave alerts remain active in pockets of central and western India and El Niño may reshape the monsoon ahead.
A Mixed Bag Heat, Rain, and Relief All at Once
India steps into May 2026 with a weather picture that is anything but simple. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has laid out a forecast that blends mild temperature relief with a sharp uptick in thunderstorm activity. For millions battling punishing pre-summer heat, the news brings cautious optimism. Yet, not everyone gets to breathe easy swaths of central and western India remain firmly under the grip of intense heat.
The IMD’s monthly outlook for May makes one thing clear maximum temperatures across large parts of the country will stay normal to below normal. That is a meaningful departure from the scorching conditions that have dominated recent weeks. Still, southern peninsular India, parts of the northeast, and pockets of northwest India may record above-normal daytime temperatures keeping residents on guard.
Night Temperatures Stay Warm A Concern for Farmers
One aspect of the forecast that deserves attention is the behaviour of night temperatures. Minimum temperatures the overnight lows are likely to stay warmer than usual across most of the country. Only select pockets of northwest and central India, along with some adjoining peninsular and northeastern areas, may see normal to below-normal nighttime readings.
This persistent warmth after sundown is not just uncomfortable for residents it poses a real agricultural concern. The IMD noted that higher night temperatures and localised heat stress in some regions could affect crop yields, particularly during critical growth stages of the kharif season ahead. Farmers harvesting late rabi crops may benefit from relatively cooler daytime temperatures, but the warmer nights add a layer of risk they cannot ignore.
Thunderstorms to Dominate Widespread Activity Expected
May 2026 will be defined in large part by thunderstorm activity. Across the western Himalayan region and the adjoining plains, light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds is likely to continue through the coming weeks. This pattern already bringing visible relief to Delhi and several northern states will keep daytime temperatures in check.
Eastern and northeastern India are set for sustained and fairly widespread rainfall, with heavy to very heavy downpours likely in some areas. Thundersqualls and hailstorms may also hit isolated locations a reminder that “relief” and “risk” often travel together during India’s stormy season. Central India will see intermittent thunderstorms too, while the south gets scattered showers though coastal and southern pockets may still contend with hot and humid air despite the rain.
Delhi Gets a Break For Now
The national capital has already seen temperatures tumble after a series of thunderstorms rolled through. The IMD forecasts a partly to generally cloudy sky over Delhi in the days ahead, with very light rain and gusty winds likely. Daytime temperatures in Delhi are expected to hover around 41 degrees Celsius still warm, but a far cry from the punishing highs seen earlier. Nights will remain relatively cooler, offering residents some genuine respite from peak summer conditions.
Maximum temperatures in northwest India may nudge up slightly before dipping again as fresh rainfall intensifies. Central India could see a marginal initial dip followed by stable conditions, while most other parts of the country will see little significant change in temperature.
Heatwave Alerts Vidarbha and Rajasthan in the Hot Zone
Not all of India escapes the heat. Heatwave conditions remain a serious concern in Vidarbha and Rajasthan, where temperatures are forecast to stay well above normal levels. The IMD has also flagged a rise in heatwave days in specific zones particularly along the Himalayan foothills, parts of the east coast, and in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist in several eastern and southern coastal pockets despite rainfall events.
Maximum temperatures are expected to rise marginally in northwest India before a fresh round of rainfall pulls them back down. The IMD’s message to these regions is clear prepare for heat, even as the rest of the country gets some welcome relief.
El Niño on the Horizon Monsoon Uncertainty Builds
Behind the monthly forecast lies a bigger, longer-range question what does the monsoon look like this year? The IMD has flagged that neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean are gradually shifting towards El Niño. Climate models indicate this transition could firm up during the southwest monsoon season itself a development that typically suppresses rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail. A positive IOD phase is likely to emerge towards the latter part of the monsoon which could partially offset El Niño’s drying influence. How these two competing oceanic forces play out will shape India’s monsoon story in the months ahead.
Farmers Face a Dual Challenge
The agricultural picture for May is mixed. On one hand, relatively cooler daytime temperatures in many regions will support the harvesting of late rabi crops a clear positive. On the other hand, above-normal rainfall expected across much of the country could improve soil moisture and help preparations for the kharif sowing season.
However, the IMD also warned that excess rain in some areas may disrupt harvesting operations. Waterlogging and fungal infections could damage crops in low-lying or rain-heavy regions. Add to this the risk from warmer nights and localised heat stress, and farmers have a genuinely complex month ahead one that demands close attention to both local forecasts and field conditions.
Rainfall Forecast Above Normal for Most
On the rainfall front, May 2026 looks wetter than usual for most of India. The IMD said rainfall across the country is “most likely to be above normal” crossing 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA). Normal to above-normal precipitation is likely across most regions. The exception: parts of east and northeast India, along with east-central India, may receive below-normal rainfall making the picture uneven across the map.
For India as a whole, the IMD’s May 2026 forecast is a study in contrasts mild days for some, relentless heat for others, thunderstorms almost everywhere, and a looming monsoon question that no one can answer with certainty just yet.
