Monsoon Arrives Early: Kerala to Get First Rains on May 26, IMD Warns of El Niño Threat Ahead

India’s weather authority says the southwest monsoon will reach Kerala six days ahead of schedule but a looming El Niño cloud could mean a drier-than-usual season for millions of Indians.

Kerala Braces for Early Monsoon as IMD Pins Arrival on May 26

India’s southwest monsoon is heading to Kerala earlier than expected this year and the country is watching closely. The India Meteorological Department announced on Friday that the monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26. Normally, the monsoon rolls into Kerala around June 1. So this year’s forecast puts it roughly six days ahead of that usual date.

“This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ±4 days (could occur four days before or after),” the IMD said.

That window means the monsoon could arrive as early as May 22 or push to as late as May 30. Either way, the rains are coming sooner than most years.

Why Kerala Matters: The Monsoon’s Official Gateway

Kerala is not just another state on the monsoon map it is the official entry point. The moment rains hit Kerala, it signals the formal start of India’s southwest monsoon season, which runs from June through September. From Kerala, the monsoon marches steadily northward bringing relief to sweltering states one by one.

“As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas,” the IMD noted.

Last year, the monsoon touched down in Kerala on May 24 making this year’s forecast only slightly later by comparison.

Six Indicators That Tell IMD When the Monsoon Will Arrive

The IMD does not guess when the monsoon arrives it runs a home-grown statistical model built in 2005. That model tracks six key weather signals. These include minimum temperatures over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peaks over the southern peninsula, and Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation over the South China Sea. The model also checks radiation over the Southwest Pacific Ocean, lower tropospheric wind flow over the equatorial southeast Indian Ocean, and upper tropospheric winds over the equatorial northeast Indian Ocean. Together, these six variables help scientists pin down the monsoon’s likely landing date with reasonable precision.

Early Monsoon, But a Warning Lurks, El Niño Could Trim the Rains

The early arrival of the monsoon may sound like good news and in many ways, it is. Northern and central India have been baking under severe heatwaves. Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu will be first in line for relief. Heavy rainfall is expected along the southern west coast right through May 28.

But here is where the story gets complicated El Niño.

The IMD has already flagged below-normal rainfall for the June-to-September season. India could receive around 80 cm of rain during these monsoon months. That is noticeably lower than the long-period average of 87 cm based on data from 1971 to 2020. The projected seasonal rainfall stands at roughly 92% of the Long Period Average.

In May, the department’s monthly forecast noted that El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions over the equatorial Pacific were shifting away from neutral and edging toward El Niño territory. An El Niño event typically brings drier conditions, weaker monsoon winds, and higher temperatures across the Indian subcontinent.

What This Means for the Country

Most parts of India are likely to see below-normal rainfall this season. Some regions including parts of northeast India, northwest India, and southern peninsular zones may still see normal or above-normal showers. The rest of the country, however, may face a rain deficit.

At the same time, the IMD reported a well-marked low-pressure area forming over the Bay of Bengal. This system is expected to trigger heavy to very heavy rainfall across parts of northeast India, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and south interior Karnataka over the coming days.

Conditions over the South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are turning favourable setting the stage for the monsoon’s forward march.

The big picture an early monsoon is welcome after a brutal summer, but the El Niño shadow means farmers, water planners, and policymakers cannot fully exhale just yet.