Mayur MohtaIndia’s state-run oil companies raised fuel prices for the third time this month pushing cumulative increases to nearly ₹5 per litre. Experts warn more hikes may be coming until OMC losses disappear.
Indians woke up to costlier fuel again on Saturday. State-run Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) raised petrol and diesel prices by nearly ₹1 per litre each the third revision in just eight days. Since the first hike on May 15, pump prices have climbed by nearly ₹5 per litre in total. The trigger remains the same the ongoing US-Iran war, which has kept global crude oil above $100 a barrel and supply chains on edge.
What makes this particularly striking is the broader context. Even as Brent crude slipped 5.5% from its level at the time of the first hike, domestic retail prices kept climbing. The OMCs Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) are clearly in catch-up mode after years of absorbing losses.
New City-Wise Petrol and Diesel Rates for May 23
Here is where fuel prices stand across India’s four major metro cities after Saturday’s revision:
Delhi: Petrol — ₹99.51/litre (+87 paise) | Diesel — ₹92.49/litre (+91 paise)
Kolkata: Petrol — ₹110.64/litre (+94 paise) | Diesel — ₹97.02/litre (+95 paise)
Mumbai: Petrol — ₹108.49/litre (+90 paise) | Diesel — ₹95.02/litre (+94 paise)
Chennai: Petrol — ₹105.31/litre (+82 paise) | Diesel — ₹96.98/litre (+87 paise)
Delhi petrol is now knocking on the ₹100 mark sitting at ₹99.51 per litre. Kolkata records the steepest petrol price among the metros at ₹110.64 per litre. Variations in local state levies account for the city-to-city differences.
Cumulative Impact: How Much Have Prices Really Risen?
Across the three hikes since May 15, the total increase in Delhi stands at ₹4.74 per litre for petrol and ₹4.82 per litre for diesel. The pace and scale of this revision draws comparisons to March-April 2022 when pump prices rose roughly ₹9 per litre in daily increments of around 80 paise, following Russia’s war in Ukraine. That was the last time India raised retail fuel prices in April 2022.
Before that, the previous revision had been in May 2022, when the government intervened with an excise duty cut to shield consumers. The four-year freeze on retail fuel prices is now unmistakably over.
Also Read | Fuel Costs Jump Again; Petrol & Diesel Get Costlier Across Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata & Bengaluru
Will Prices Rise Further? Experts Say Yes For Now
Sector analysts and industry insiders offer little comfort to commuters hoping for a breather. The consensus is clear incremental fuel price hikes in small doses will likely continue until the OMCs stop recording revenue losses.
Estimates suggest under-recoveries on petrol and diesel currently run at around ₹8–10 per litre. Add to that ongoing losses on LPG or cooking gas and the financial hole is substantial.
After the first ₹3 hike on May 15, combined daily losses across the three OMCs stood at around ₹1,000 crore. The second round of hikes on May 19 brought that figure down to roughly ₹750 crore. Following Saturday’s third revision, under-recoveries are estimated to have fallen below ₹500 crore per day.
Progress but nowhere near zero. As long as international crude remains above $100 a barrel, further price revisions remain firmly on the table. Analysts say crude would need to drop closer to $70 per barrel the industry’s comfort level before any pricing relief can be offered to consumers.
Also Read | India’s Petrol-Diesel Price Hike After Four Years, Experts Warn This Could Be Just the First Move
India’s Deep Exposure to the West Asia Crisis
The relentless pace of fuel price hikes reflects India’s uncomfortable vulnerability to global oil market shocks. India imports over 88% of the crude oil it processes and pays for it in US dollars. That creates a double exposure: any spike in crude prices hurts, and any weakening of the rupee makes it hurt even more.
The Strait of Hormuz the narrow sea passage through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows remains a flashpoint. Iran has threatened to restrict access. India gets approximately 40% of its crude supply through that very chokepoint.
Benchmark Brent crude closed at $103.54 a barrel on Friday a 0.9% rise from $102.58 the previous day. Since the US-Israel conflict with Iran erupted on February 28, Brent prices have surged more than 42%, up from $72.87 on February 27. The market remains volatile and highly sensitive to any escalation in the region.
Also Read | India Raises Petrol and Diesel Prices by ₹3
OMCs Are Actually Profitable So Why the Hikes?
Here is where the story gets more nuanced. Despite the West Asia crisis upending global oil markets in the final month of FY26, India’s three state-run OMCs posted a combined net profit of ₹19,470 crore in the January–March 2026 quarter a 40.74% jump over the same period last year. IOC and HPCL posted strong earnings; BPCL’s profit remained flat.
For the full year 2025–26, the three companies together recorded a staggering 130% rise in combined net profit clocking ₹77,280.65 crore against ₹33,601.57 crore in 2024–25. The windfall was driven by stable crude for most of the year, with healthy refining and marketing margins keeping earnings robust.
The US-Israel attack on Iran in February, however, changed the equation sharply. Crude surged, margins compressed overnight and the losses that followed the conflict have been bleeding the companies since March. The current hike cycle is essentially an effort to rebuild margins that war-driven crude prices have eroded.
The Three OMCs Who Controls Your Fuel
Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum together control over 90% of India’s domestic fuel retail market. All three revise prices simultaneously. Their pricing decisions affect every motorist, every truck driver, every household relying on cooking gas and indirectly, every consumer who buys goods that travel by road.
The May 15 hike was the first fuel price increase since April 2022. Three increases in eight days signals that the era of frozen fuel prices which lasted through the 2024 general elections and well into 2026 is definitively over. The question is not whether prices will rise again. It is by how much and how soon.
Akshay Didwaniya
Pratik Agrawal
