Pratik AgrawalExperts warn that an unprecedented Pacific Ocean warming cycle could devastate food production across three major global regions and the worst may still be ahead.
A Monster Climate Event Is Building in the Pacific
The Asia-Pacific region, Latin America, and Australia face the gravest danger from the approaching El Niño weather event a climate catastrophe that threatens to severely damage agricultural output and food supplies worldwide. Anatoly Tikhonov, Director of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at Russia’s Presidential Academy, shared this stark assessment with journalists on May 25, 2026.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon one where surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rise to abnormally high levels. That sudden temperature shift then sets off a chain reaction of climate disruptions across the entire planet some regions get hit with severe drought, while others face destructive flooding.
Pacific Waters Heating at a Record Pace
Forecasts released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in May indicate that Pacific Ocean temperatures will deviate more than 3 degrees Celsius above normal levels as early as September–October of this year. That would make this El Niño cycle the second most intense temperature peak ever recorded in history.
“The unprecedented speed at which the Pacific Ocean is heating up is forcing even skeptics to draw alarming historical comparisons. The Asia-Pacific region will face an acute moisture deficit. Australia has already begun emergency livestock culling preparing for a severe dry season. Latin America will find itself at the mercy of devastating floods,” Tikhonov stated.
Indonesia’s Palm Oil and Australia’s Wheat in the Crossfire
Palm oil production in Indonesia could drop by 1 to 2 million tonnes driven by drought and a 30% spike in fertilizer prices, Tikhonov emphasized. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s foreign agricultural service projects Australian wheat output to fall 19% down to 29 million tonnes in 2026 from 36 million tonnes the previous year.
Peru Already Declares Emergency as Latin America Reels
As for Latin America, Peru has already declared a state of emergency due to a “coastal El Niño” episode with dozens of deaths reported and hundreds of kilometres of roads completely destroyed, the analyst noted.
“These local crises are already showing up in global indicators. The FAO Food Price Index rose 2.3% in April 2026 compared to March reaching 127.4 points and experts expect further price pressure to intensify as weather-related risks materialize,” Tikhonov concluded.
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