Aditya DidwaniyaEcuadorian oceanographer Franklin Ormaza has cautioned that the El Niño weather pattern may trigger more destructive flooding and storms across Ecuador in 2027, as warning signs already build along the coast.
Oceanographer Flags Growing Risk For 2027
Ecuador may be headed toward a rougher El Niño season in 2027, according to local oceanographer Franklin Ormaza. He shared his warning in comments to the press on November 1.
He explained that if the ocean keeps warming through 2027, the fallout could hit even harder than before.“If ocean warming persists until 2027, the consequences could be even more serious.” Ormaza said,
Early Warning Signs Already Showing
Ormaza pointed out that several El Niño indicators are already visible along Ecuador’s coastline. Unusually warm seawater has appeared offshore. Ocean heat is building up steadily. Humidity levels are climbing too, alongside scattered heavy downpours in certain areas.
What worries him most is the timing. These effects are showing up before the phenomenon even reaches its peak strength. That, he said, points to just how exposed the country already is.
A Pacific Cycle That Can Swing Either Way
The oceanographer also brought up the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, a slow natural climate rhythm that plays out over decades in the Pacific Ocean. Depending on which phase it’s in, PDO can either boost or dampen El Niño’s strength.
Right now, he noted, the PDO phase appears to be holding El Niño somewhat in check. But it can’t cancel the threat out entirely. That means the danger of extreme rainfall, flooding and the social and economic damage that follows hasn’t gone away.
“What we have seen so far should be taken as a warning sign. If we are already witnessing such serious events during the transition period, then preparedness and prevention must become a national priority.”, Ormaza stressed, underlining that preparation must now become a national priority.
The Damage Already On The Books
Official figures paint a grim picture already. Since late August, 23 of Ecuador’s 24 provinces have logged 868 weather-related incidents. Most involve flooding, landslides and powerful storm winds.
More than 37,000 people have been affected so far. Since authorities declared a red alert on August 29, the extreme weather has claimed four lives.
What Exactly Is El Niño
El Niño is a natural climate cycle marked by abnormal warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It tends to bring heavy rains and flooding to some regions while triggering severe droughts elsewhere.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, the current El Niño event could turn out to be the strongest recorded since 1950.
Pratik Agrawal
Akshay Didwaniya
Mayur Mohta
