The BRICS TimesThe two most powerful leaders on the planet are heading into high-stakes talks in Beijing with trade wars, Taiwan, rare earths, Iran, and artificial intelligence all on the line.
The Meeting the World Has Been Waiting For
US President Donald Trump is heading to Beijing for a two-day face-to-face summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping the first visit by an American president to China in nearly a decade. The meetings, scheduled for May 14–15, were originally planned for March but got pushed back due to the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran. Now, with global tensions running high and both economies under pressure, the stakes couldn’t be higher. This summit long anticipated and closely watched is more than just a diplomatic photo opportunity. It represents a defining moment for two rival superpowers whose relationship has been battered by trade wars, tech battles, and competing visions for global leadership. Every handshake, every word, and every deal or lack of one will send ripples across global markets and geopolitical alliances for months to come.
Trade War Fallout and the Fragile Truce
At the heart of the Beijing summit lies the smouldering wreckage of a brutal trade war. Last year, the Trump administration slapped China with tariffs ranging from 34% to a staggering 125%, triggering sharp retaliation from Beijing. Chinese exports to the US dropped nearly 20% in 2025 a dramatic blow to both economies. An uneasy truce reached in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025 offered some breathing room. But even after that deal, Chinese exports to the US continued to slide, falling another 11% in early 2026. Analysts don’t expect a sweeping trade breakthrough from Beijing. What’s more likely pragmatic announcements on Boeing jets, agricultural purchases, energy agreements, and rare earth supply stability. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told reporters, “The American people can expect the president to deliver more good deals on behalf of our country.” A bilateral trade management board and an investment dialogue forum are reportedly both on the table.
Rare Earths: China’s Quiet Superweapon
Perhaps nothing has exposed America’s vulnerability more sharply than China’s dominance over rare earth minerals. China controls roughly 90% of global rare earth refining materials that are essential for semiconductors, electric vehicles, military hardware, and consumer electronics. When Beijing threatened to choke off those supplies in April and October 2025, Washington blinked and fast. Trump backed away from escalation both times, signaling just how exposed the US economy really is. Securing a deal on rare earth exports or at least stabilising supply chains is now among the Trump team’s top priorities heading into Beijing. For Xi, it remains a powerful bargaining chip one he has shown no hesitation in using. “I think it’s ultimately what is driving the Trump administration’s eagerness to have this good relationship with China,” said Kyle Chan, a US-China relations expert at the Brookings Institution.
Taiwan: The Elephant in the Room
Taiwan looms over every exchange between Washington and Beijing like a storm cloud that refuses to move. China claims the self-governed island as its own territory and has intensified military pressure on Taiwan through regular air and naval operations. Tensions sharpened further after Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te whose party views Taiwan as already fully sovereign came to power. The US Congress recently approved an $11 billion arms sale package to Taiwan, a move that infuriated Beijing. China has made it abundantly clear it wants that deal cancelled. Beijing is also watching closely for any language shift from Trump on Taiwan’s status. “The Chinese are ‘super focused’ on any kind of language shift on Taiwan from Trump,” according to Chan. Meanwhile, some analysts warn that the US military’s deep engagement in the Middle East may have inadvertently created an opening for China near Taiwan. Georgetown University professor Arthur Dong put it bluntly “If China were to contemplate an attack, this might be the opportune moment to do it.”
Iran, The Strait of Hormuz, and Energy Chaos
The Iran conflict triggered by US-Israeli strikes in February 2026 has become a shared headache for both Washington and Beijing. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a competing US blockade of Iranian ports have left Chinese ships stranded at sea. China relies on the Middle East for roughly half of its crude oil imports, making the energy disruption a serious economic wound for Beijing. Trump, for his part, is expected to push Xi to use China’s close relationship with Tehran to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. “I have no doubt that Trump is going to at least try to enlist Xi Jinping to assert some pressure for the Iranians to come back to the table,” said Dan Grazier of the Stimson Center. Experts note that both countries share a basic interest stable energy flows through the Gulf. But Beijing is unlikely to align itself too openly with Washington’s approach toward Tehran, given its own deep strategic ties with Iran.
AI, Semiconductors, and the Tech Cold War
Artificial intelligence is rapidly moving to the front of the agenda in US-China diplomacy and Beijing. Both governments are reportedly weighing the creation of a formal AI safety dialogue, something China has long pushed for. But experts are sceptical of Beijing’s sincerity. The US and China do share an interest in preventing the release of dangerously capable AI models. However, China has consistently used these dialogues as a platform to expand access to American technology and chip designs rather than to address shared risks. On semiconductors, Washington has tightened export controls on advanced chips and chip-making equipment, citing risks to China’s military and AI development. Beijing wants those restrictions lifted. “The two sides will also discuss additional agreements on industry, spanning aerospace, agriculture and energy,” Kelly said.
Business Giants Tag Along
Trump isn’t heading to Beijing alone. A high-powered delegation of American CEOs is making the trip including Tesla chief Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, and Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach, among others. The presence of this business brigade signals Washington’s intent to turn geopolitical goodwill if any emerges into concrete commercial deals. Some US companies are already hoping to leverage the summit into new purchasing agreements and market access deals in China.
What to Realistically Expect
Analysts are deliberately keeping expectations modest. The summit is unlikely to produce a dramatic transformation in US-China relations those kinds of sweeping resets rarely come from two-day meetings between rival superpowers. What Beijing could deliver is something more modest but still meaningful a managed de-escalation, a few headline-grabbing deals, and a reaffirmation that both sides still prefer controlled competition over open conflict. “Both sides are trying to read the other’s latest bottom line, clarify red lines and test how far pressure can go before stable tension turns into rupture,” analyst Gu told Al Jazeera. The real measure of success won’t be the communiqué issued at the end it will be what happens in the months that follow.
