Pratik AgrawalThe Trump administration has renewed its sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne oil for another 30 days a move that directly benefits India as it battles a global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, India made clear it was buying Russian oil regardless.
US Flips Course, Renews Russian Oil Waiver Again
Washington’s back-and-forth on Russian oil sanctions took another dramatic turn on Monday. The Trump administration which had let the previous waiver quietly expire on May 16 reversed course just days later. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a fresh 30-day general licence, allowing energy-vulnerable nations to access Russian crude oil currently stranded aboard tankers at sea.
Bessent confirmed the decision in a post on X, writing: “US Treasury is issuing a temporary 30-day general license to provide the most vulnerable nations with the ability to temporarily access Russian oil currently stranded at sea. This extension will provide additional flexibility, and we will work with these nations to provide specific licenses as needed. This general license will help stabilise the physical crude market and ensure oil reaches the most energy-vulnerable countries.”
This marks the second time Washington has allowed the waiver to lapse only to renew it shortly after. The first waiver was issued in March. It was extended in April before expiring again on May 16.
The Iran War : The Root Cause of This Entire Crisis
The deeper context here is the ongoing US-Israeli military conflict with Iran and what it has done to global oil markets. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but vital shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf, has been shut down. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through this chokepoint.
The conflict sent crude prices into a spiral. Brent crude the global benchmark was trading around $72–73 per barrel just before the Iran conflict began in late February. It now sits above $112 per barrel a jump of nearly 50% in just a few months. On Monday alone, Brent futures climbed 2.6% as supply concerns continued to dominate global markets.
The waiver on Russian oil was originally introduced in March not to help Russia but to release Russian crude already sitting on tankers and ease the global supply crunch.
Why India Is at the Centre of All This
India has become one of the world’s biggest buyers of Russian crude. Before the Ukraine war erupted in 2022, Russia accounted for barely 2% of India’s total oil imports. That figure exploded as Russian oil started arriving at steep discounts as much as $15–20 per barrel below Brent after Western buyers walked away.
Indian refineries, already built to process medium-sour crude grades similar to Russia’s Urals blend, seized the opportunity. By May 2026, Russian crude flows into India were running at close to 1.9 million barrels a day near peak levels.
During the first sanctions waiver in March, Indian refineries ordered roughly 30 million barrels of Russian oil. The stockpiling was urgent. Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly called for fuel austerity urging citizens to cut their petrol and diesel consumption signalling the pressure on the country’s energy reserves.
India currently holds about 60 days of crude oil and LNG reserves, along with 45 days of LPG stockpiles.
India’s Defiant Stand ‘Waiver or No Waiver’
What made Monday’s announcement particularly notable was the timing. Just hours before the US announced the renewed waiver, India’s own government made its position crystal clear.
Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, told reporters: “Regarding the American waiver on Russia, I would like to emphasise that we have been purchasing from Russia earlier before waiver also, during waiver also, and now also.”
She added: “Whatever waiver or no waiver, it will not affect our supplies, and all efforts have been taken to that effect.”
India’s stance rests on a legal technicality that is often overlooked. While major Russian oil companies including Rosneft and Lukoil are under US and European sanctions, Russian oil itself is not under a blanket ban. India has continued to buy it by ensuring that transactions avoid sanctioned sellers, use non-sanctioned vessels, and settle payments in fully compliant currencies.
What the Waiver Actually Does and What It Doesn’t
The current waiver is narrower than it might seem. It applies only to Russian oil already loaded onto tankers not to fresh supplies being pumped now. Analysts have pointed out that this distinction limits its impact on global prices.
Stephanie Connor, a former policy director at the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control and now a partner at Holland & Knight, said: “It is not yet clear whether these short-term authorisations have had any meaningful impact on US gasoline prices.” She also noted that British and European sanctions on Russian oil purchases remain fully in place meaning the waiver operates within a complex web of overlapping restrictions.
Meanwhile, Brent crude still closed above $112 per barrel on Monday suggesting markets are far from convinced that the waiver is a game-changer.
G7 Pressure on Iran Sanctions : Bessent’s Dual Message
Bessent, who delivered Monday’s announcement from Paris where he was attending a G7 finance leaders’ meeting used the occasion to push a harder line on Iran.
“We call upon all our G7 and indeed all of our allies and the rest of the world to follow the sanctions regime, so that we can crack down on the illicit finance that is fueling the Iranian war machine and give this money back to the Iranian people,” Bessent told reporters.
The same day, Trump said he had paused a planned military strike on Iran to allow peace negotiations to continue adding yet another layer of uncertainty to global energy markets.
What This Means Going Forward
The short-term relief is real for India but the larger picture remains uncertain. Indian officials had warned Washington that rising energy costs were already squeezing 1.4 billion people, including through shortages of cooking gas. Foreign exchange reserves stand at a comfortable $703 billion, but global crude prices at these levels translate directly into a ballooning import bill.
Indian refiners including Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Reliance Industries have been exploring alternatives from the US, UAE, Oman, Africa and Iraq. But those options carry higher landed costs and lack the steep discounts that made Russian oil so attractive.
The structural reliance on Russian crude, built steadily over three years of discounted procurement, cannot be unwound quickly. For now, India gets another 30 days. What happens after that both in the Iran war and in Washington’s sanctions playbook remains wide open.
Akshay Didwaniya
Aditya Didwaniya
