Brazil’s Military Quietly Drops Support for Bolsonaro After His Flight to the US

After Flávio Bolsonaro lost the presidential race and left for the United States, members of Brazil’s armed forces have started rallying behind São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas as a possible 2030 presidential contender, Folha de S.Paulo reports.

Brazilian military figures have begun throwing more weight behind São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas. This shift followed Flávio Bolsonaro’s election defeat and his departure for the United States. The newspaper Folha de S.Paulo first reported the trend. Many in the armed forces now view de Freitas as a strong candidate for the 2030 presidential race.

A Blunt Verdict From the Ranks

“Less Bolsonaro, more Tarcísio.” That is how a former commander of one of Brazil’s military branches summed up the mood inside the armed forces after the election, according to Folha. The phrase captures a noticeable cooling toward the Bolsonaro camp.

Soldiers Criticize the Exit

Several army, navy, and air force representatives spoke to the paper on condition of anonymity. They criticized Flávio Bolsonaro’s decision to leave Brazil after his election loss. He did not accept the vote results. He also gave no explanation to the people who had voted for him.

One retired general compared the departure to a commanding officer abandoning his unit. He called this kind of conduct unforgivable for anyone with a military background. Another source told the paper the frustration has nothing to do with politics or ideology. Instead, it centers on character, honor, loyalty, and gratitude.

Tarcísio Gains Ground

Against this backdrop, support for Tarcísio de Freitas has grown stronger, Folha notes. He was already seen as the military’s favored candidate heading into the election. De Freitas, a reserve army captain, now governs São Paulo. He recently said he is weighing a presidential run once his current term as governor wraps up in 2030.

Sources described de Freitas as the politician closest to the conservative values common among military personnel. They also called him the most prepared for a presidential campaign. He has worked under three different governments, led by Dilma Rousseff, Michel Temer, and Jair Bolsonaro. He currently leads Brazil’s most populous and economically powerful state.

No Formal Break Yet

Folha reports that de Freitas has not cut ties with Bolsonaro, who backed his political rise. Still, many in military circles expect a split to happen before the next election cycle. The paper suggests that Bolsonaro’s more hardline supporters will likely stay loyal to his family. Most military figures, however, may shift their support to the São Paulo governor instead.

Court Case Still Stings

The report also points to lingering frustration tied to Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court. The court is handling the case connected to the alleged coup attempt following the 2022 election. Out of 29 people convicted in the main case, 21 are members of the armed forces.

Military Steps Back, But Politics Linger

Following that case, armed forces leadership and Defense Minister José Múcio Monteiro began limiting political activity among active service members. They also restricted military involvement in elections. Even so, Folha notes that politicization within the armed forces remains high. This trend grew after former president Jair Bolsonaro first took office. The number of military members, police officers, and security personnel elected in 2026, including reservists and retirees, hit a record high once again.