India faces future threat as extreme heat risks intensify: Report

Northern India sees slower winter warming due to pollution and farming, but experts warn this safety shield may soon vanish.

The Warming Gap and Air Pollution

India has not yet felt the full force of the global climate crisis. A new study released Wednesday shows India’s land warmed by 0.88°C between 1980 and 2024. In contrast, the global average rise reached 1.4°C. The Harvard University paper identifies an unusual cause for this: air pollution.

Why North India Feels Cooler

“Understanding this warming gap matters for adaptation planning because the processes that have partially suppressed warming in parts of India are not guaranteed to persist,” states the report by the Salata Institute. In North India, winter days are warming slower than the national average. Some areas even show a cooling trend in January. This happens because high pollution and heavy irrigation act as a shield. Aerosols scatter sunlight, while irrigation cools the air through evaporation.

The Risk of Clean Air

Efforts like the National Clean Air Programme aim to reduce pollution. While this is great for health, it removes the “mask” hiding greenhouse warming. As air gets cleaner, winter temperatures in the north may rise quickly. The paper warns that historical data might lead us to underestimate future heat risks. “Heat action plans, agricultural forecasts, labour protections, and financial instruments calibrated to historical averages risk systematic underestimation of the exposures populations will face within those instruments’ own planning horizons. A warming trend that has appeared modest over recent decades may not remain so,” the researchers added.

Lethal Heat and Labor Risks

About 380 million Indians work in extreme heat. This includes sectors like farming and construction, which drive half of India’s GDP. “In the near future, the scale of exposure is set to intensify: Up to 200 million people in the country could face lethal heat conditions as early as 2030, while rising heat stress is projected to account for tens of millions of lost jobs globally. The capacity to adapt remains deeply unequal: For instance, only about 8% of households currently have access to air conditioning, leaving the majority of the population to cope with rising temperatures through limited or ineffective means.”

Rainfall and Farming Challenges

The report also highlights unpredictable rainfall. Some models suggest rain could increase by 20% to 60% by the century’s end. “Both scenarios would require tremendous amounts of adaptation by farmers, and efforts to better constrain this model uncertainty are an urgent research priority. Furthermore, climate models predict increases in inter annual variations as the climate warms, highlighting the need for accurate long-range predictions for farmers,” the report explains. It stresses that extreme heat will worsen regardless of the scenario.

Building Resilience for the Future

Harvard experts suggest using passive cooling designs and new insurance for workers. They warn that relying only on “cool roofs” is not enough for humid heat. Unlike floods, extreme heat is an invisible killer that hurts health and the economy. “India’s immediate task is to establish the fiscal and institutional foundations for heat resilience. This includes defining budget lines, strengthening early-warning systems and anticipatory financing, and improving coordination between states and cities,” the paper concludes.