Akshay DidwaniyaPresident Donald Trump has said no to Iran’s ceasefire plan, and reports suggest he expects fresh strikes once the November midterms are over.
US President Donald Trump has turned down the terms of a ceasefire deal with Iran. US media reports say he has told aides he expects a new bombing campaign against Iran after the November midterm elections.
The news comes while Washington and Tehran are still passing messages through mediators. Some of that contact happened during the United Nations General Assembly’s High-Level Week in New York. Trump has also said he expects more talks with Iran this week.
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What Happened Over the Weekend?
On Saturday, Trump confirmed that he had rejected an Iranian peace plan. The plan would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and paused the fighting across the region.
Qatari mediators carried the proposal to Washington. Under it, the US would have lifted its naval blockade and eased some sanctions on Iran. In return, Iran would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and started talks on its nuclear programme. The deal would also have started a seven-day countdown to reopening the strait and a pause in regional fighting.
Reports say Trump doubts that diplomacy with Iran will work. The Wall Street Journal reports that he has told aides he expects the US to bomb Iranian territory again after the November congressional elections.
This matters because diplomacy has continued even during the military standoff. Officials from both countries have held indirect talks through mediators. Some of those talks took place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran is still waiting. He says mediators have yet to pass on Washington’s formal response to the proposal.
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Why Did the Talks Fall Apart?
The core issue is simple. The two sides want very different things before they agree to any deal.
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz says Iran asked for too much at the start. That included billions of dollars in sanctions relief.
Washington believes economic pressure will eventually push Iran back to the table. The Trump administration has stepped up that pressure through the US Treasury’s Operation Economic Outcast, which began in August.
The campaign goes after financial networks, companies and other entities. The US accuses them of helping Iran earn money or dodge sanctions. The measures have hit digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. The US has also sanctioned entities in countries such as Turkey and the UAE. It says they help Iran keep its financial lifelines open.
The pressure has also hurt Iran’s air links with key regional partners. Earlier this month, the UAE suspended flights by Iranian airlines after the US imposed sanctions.
Washington expects Iran’s deep economic troubles to make it more open to a deal. Tehran sees it differently. It believes it can survive long economic pressure and even another US bombing campaign.
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How Does the Strait of Hormuz Fit In?
The Strait of Hormuz has become the heart of the US-Iran standoff.
It is a vital route for global energy. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas moved through it. Any closure or disruption therefore shakes energy markets and shipping around the world.
The US has used its naval blockade and economic pressure to push Iran to reopen the waterway. Tehran, on the other hand, says it will reopen the strait only if Washington meets its demands.
Trump has also argued that more oil is now moving through the strait. In his view, that lowers the pressure on Washington to strike a deal.
Iran’s latest proposal tied the reopening of the strait to US concessions. Those included lifting the naval blockade, easing sanctions on Iranian oil sales and restarting nuclear talks.
What Does Iran Want?
Iran wants the US blockade lifted and some sanctions relief as part of any agreement.
Tehran also wants to go back to the memorandum of understanding reached after talks in Islamabad in June. Washington is reportedly not keen on returning to that deal.
Iranian officials insist the strait will reopen only after the US meets their conditions.
Araghchi says Iran’s position is clear. Any step toward reopening the waterway depends on those conditions being met.
This stance shows how Tehran views the strait. It sees the waterway as one of its strongest bargaining chips in talks with Washington.
Does Trump Still Want Talks?
Yes, he does.
Even after rejecting Iran’s latest offer, Trump told Axios in a phone interview on Sunday that more talks are coming this week.
“I expect more talks with Iran [this week]. They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand.”
Trump also confirmed that he is weighing new military action against Iran. When asked about resuming strikes, he said: “I am always thinking about it.”
So diplomacy has not collapsed completely. But the threat of military escalation is still very real.
Why Is Qatar Important?
Qatar has become the main go-between for Washington and Tehran.
Qatari negotiators have been travelling back and forth between the two sides. They are still trying to close the gaps. Axios reports that mediators were still discussing changes to the proposed text over the weekend.
More indirect talks through Qatar could begin as early as Monday.
Qatar’s prime minister has admitted that ending the US-Iran conflict through diplomacy has become harder. However, he said recent discussions have brought some positive progress.
Other Gulf countries are also watching closely. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have urged Washington to keep up the economic pressure on Tehran. They are wary of any concessions that might ease sanctions.
Have the Talks Stalled?
Not entirely.
The rejection of the latest ceasefire plan is a fresh setback. Still, both sides keep talking through intermediaries.
Trump’s comments show that Washington is ready to keep talking while keeping military action on the table. Iran, for its part, continues to call for a negotiated solution. It says its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz have not changed.
The big question now is whether Qatari mediation can bridge the gaps. Those gaps cover sanctions relief, the US blockade, the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme.
Mayur Mohta
