The BRICS TimesFor the first time in nearly two decades, Moscow’s iconic May 9 parade will roll forward without tanks or missiles and the reasons behind this dramatic change reveal far more than just security concerns.
Russia Breaks a Long-Standing Parade Tradition
Russia’s annual Victory Day parade on Moscow’s Red Square the country’s most-watched tribute to the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II will take place on May 9 without any military vehicles. This marks the first such exclusion in nearly 20 years.
The Kremlin’s decision has sparked intense debate. Some analysts tie it to the growing threat of Ukrainian drone strikes reaching deep into Russian territory. Others see it as a sign of serious military strain as Russia grinds through the fifth year of its full-scale war against Ukraine.
What the Defense Ministry Said
Russia’s Defense Ministry released a midnight statement confirming the changes. Several military schools, cadet corps as well as the military hardware column would not take part this year. The ministry pointed to what it called the “current operational situation.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov framed the decision around what he described as Ukrainian aggression.
“The Kyiv regime, which is losing territory every day, losing ground on the battlefield, has now gone all out with its terrorist activities,” Peskov told reporters.
A prominent Russian military blogger and war correspondent Alexander Kots suggested the entire parade nearly got canceled. “It might not have taken place at all due to the terrorist threat,” Kots wrote on Telegram. “But the Supreme Commander has decided to honor tradition, albeit in a scaled-down form.”
Why Drones Are the Real Problem
Ruslan Leviev, co-founder of the open-source military analysis project Conflict Intelligence Team, offered a more specific explanation. He argued the biggest vulnerability wasn’t the parade itself it was the staging zones.
“When military equipment participates in parades, it is initially parked and prepared for rehearsals and the parade itself in remote areas outside Moscow, in specially designated zones,” Leviev told exiled broadcaster TV Rain. “It would be much easier to strike such areas with drones or missiles.”
He also noted that both Russia and Ukraine have taken heavy losses to their air defense systems throughout the war. This makes it harder for either side to reliably stop long-range strikes.
A Political Calculation Above All Else
An anonymous military expert told reporters that the Kremlin simply could not afford the optics of a disrupted parade on national television.
“If something happens, if they stop in the middle of the square, then there would be a traffic jam [on Red Square] and it would look very bad on TV,” the expert said. “It would be very hard to hide, and the whole political effect of the Victory Day parade would be moot.”
The expert called this a “purely political” decision one designed to avoid embarrassing footage spreading across social media. The same expert also flagged the likelihood of mobile internet shutdowns across Moscow during the Victory Day celebrations.
Smaller Crowds, Fewer World Leaders
Victory Day parades have grown more subdued since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Even so, last year’s 80th anniversary event still drew roughly 11,000 troops and around 150 military vehicles. Twenty-seven foreign leaders and international officials attended that parade.
This year looks starkly different. As of late April, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was the only sitting world leader publicly confirmed to attend. Former Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik also confirmed plans to travel to Moscow. The Kremlin said it would reveal the full guest list closer to the date.
The Bigger Picture
A former British defense attaché to Moscow John Foreman pointed out that a grand military showcase could invite sharp criticism right now. The Russian government’s approval ratings have dipped. Ukrainian drones hit targets inside Russia almost every day. And Russians across the country face regular internet outages.
The anonymous military expert raised one more uncomfortable scenario the possibility of air raid alerts sounding in Moscow on May 9 itself.
That risk alone, the expert argued, might “incentivize some of the air defenses to be moved from the front back to Moscow, opening even more gaps in Russian territory.”
“There are too many hurdles,” the expert concluded, “for not such a significant political impact.”
